We Need More Hopeful Visions of the Future

A new poll of 18 to 30 year old American registered voters finds that 64 percent agree with the statement that "America is in decline." Unfortunately, this doesn't surprise me. There is a lot of converging evidence that young Americans have a negative attitude about the present and the future. But this isn't just a story about Gen Z. In our research at the Human Flourishing Lab, we find that only a slight majority (56 percent) of Americans are hopeful for the future of the nation, and there is little difference between generations, with the exception of Americans aged 60 and over being slightly more hopeful.

It gets worse. Americans are even more pessimistic about the future of human progress. In our survey, we presented respondents with statements representing positive and negative visions of the future of human progress and asked which one they most agree with. Do Americans think humans will make significant progress on big issues and life will be better for future generations, or do they think we will fail to make progress and life will actually be worse in the future?

Only 44 percent of Americans endorsed the positive view of progress, while the majority held a grim outlook about humanity’s future. Again, this is not just a story about younger generations. Adults under 30 are the least inclined to have a positive vision of progress, with only 40 percent believing that significant strides will be made in tackling major challenges and improving quality of life. However, this number only marginally increases to around 45 percent for older generations. 

Regardless of age, a minority of Americans are bullish on human progress.

Thus, pessimism about the future isn't simply a narrative of disheartened young people; it appears to be a powerful cultural current that transcends generations. But does this pervasive pessimism truly matter? Should we be concerned that such a significant portion of the population doesn't envision a brighter future for the nation and the world? 

Yes, it does matter, and we should care. Attitudes about the future influence the actions that shape the future. If we want to solve problems, it definitely helps to believe they can be solved. Moreover, it helps to actually be hopeful they will be solved.

Hope isn't wishful thinking. It has motivational power. My colleague Dr. Andrew Abeyta, a psychology professor and Human Flourishing Lab fellow, recently published an in-depth report  on the science of hope. I encourage you to give it a read if you are interested in how a hopeful mindset supports flourishing for individuals and society.

Some people worry that promoting a positive vision of the future will encourage complacency or give people the false impression that we don't really have any big problems to stress about. I think this is why some people also avoid celebrating, or often even acknowledging, the great progress that has been made in many areas of our lives. But promoting a hopeful vision of the future isn't the same thing as selling a utopian fantasy or lying to ourselves about real problems. As humans, we possess the capacity for complex emotions and attitudes, enabling us to simultaneously be anxious and hopeful. Our extraordinary imaginative power allows us to envision worst-case scenarios, but it also empowers us to believe in our ability to prevent those fears from materializing and to shape a brighter future through our actions and determination.

The big question then is, how do we cultivate hopeful visions of the future?

Perhaps it starts with educating people about the power of hope and persuading them that positive visions of the future won't make us complacent but will instead inspire us to strive to turn these visions into realities.

I also believe that we will be more effective at reversing our culture's dominant pessimistic outlook if we develop a better understanding of people's specific worries about the future, as well as their more positive expectations and aspirations. To this end, I am excited to share a new report from a partnership between the Human Flourishing Lab and discover.ai.

Surveys that provide a quantitative snapshot of the percentage of Americans with negative attitudes about the future are useful for gauging the extent of the issue. However, these surveys often lack the specificity needed to understand the nuances of people's thoughts and concerns. Moreover, individuals do not exist in isolation; they engage in conversations with others, and these interactions offer valuable insights into their beliefs and emotions regarding the future. Increasingly, especially among younger generations who will shape the future, these conversations are taking place online. This trend presents a unique opportunity to gain a more comprehensive understanding of young Americans' perspectives on a broad range of topics relevant to human progress. By analyzing these online discussions, we can identify the specific issues that concern them, explore the reasoning behind their views, and uncover potential solutions or areas for further research. 

This is where  discover.ai comes in. They are an awesome team of insight and strategy experts who combine their human expertise with cutting-edge machine learning techniques to conduct in-depth qualitative analyses of ideas that are being shared and conversations that are happening in online spaces. In this project, discover.ai helped us explore the more naturalistic and nuanced discussions occurring in digital environments, where many people, particularly younger generations, express their hopes, fears, and expectations for their personal lives, society, and the world at large. This approach enables us to gain a more comprehensive understanding of the complex sentiments, beliefs, and discussions that shape people's perspectives on the future. 

These insights are vital for those of us dedicated to fostering a more positive and aspirational vision that inspires individuals to harness their power to improve not only their own lives but also the lives of others.

I won't dive into the details here, but it is worth noting that whether people are talking about topics related to economics, technology, education, or culture, the prevailing sentiment about the future is negative. There are definitely positive themes that emerge in which people share hope and excitement for progress. This is encouraging and offers opportunities to build on areas of existing positive energy. However, the report highlights the significant work needed to steer our conversations in a more constructive direction.

In upcoming newsletters, I intend to delve deeper into specific research on strategies for cultivating and maintaining hope and agentic mindsets. For now, I want to emphasize that positive change is driven by positive action, which begins with positive thinking. If we want the United States to remain a land of opportunity and a global leader in human progress, an attitude change is essential. Americans have long been known for their hopeful nature, believing in their ability to achieve their goals and create a better future. In many ways, hope still characterizes the American psyche, at least when it comes to individuals' personal aspirations. Our research finds that Americans are overwhelmingly hopeful about their own future and the future of their families. Now we just need to expand that hope. A dark cloud of cynicism and fatalism has cast a shadow over our discourse about the nation and humanity's future. This pessimistic narrative is a barrier to human progress and flourishing. 

In our daily interactions, both in person and online, we can all endeavor to find and spread hope.

Have a great weekend!

Clay