Does Our View of the Past Shape Our Vision of the Future?
National surveys, including ones from our team at Archbridge Institute's Human Flourishing Lab, reveal many Americans hold a bleak outlook regarding the country's future. I suspect one reason so many people are pessimistic about the future is they don't fully appreciate past progress. As a society, we often take historical advancements for granted, allowing our current dissatisfactions and daily frustrations to prevent us from stepping outside the present moment to take a larger view and realize that life has improved over time, including over recent decades.
The pervasive negativity in contemporary media reinforces this narrow focus. Bad news and outrage consistently outperform positive developments in capturing our attention and engagement. Headlines overwhelmingly emphasize crises, conflicts, and catastrophes while gradual improvements in human wellbeing rarely generate sustained coverage. Partisan and culture war politics further exacerbate this problem, with numerous voices, especially in online spaces, demonizing opposing perspectives and amplifying divisions rather than highlighting shared progress. This persistent exposure to negative information and polarized discourse creates a distorted perception of reality that fails to accurately represent the remarkable advances that have made Americans more comfortable, safer, and better positioned to take ownership of their lives, pursue their dreams, and reach their full potential.
The future remains unknown, and people's pessimism undoubtedly has many causes. However, perhaps if past progress were more widely appreciated in our culture, we might witness a more widespread positive outlook among Americans.
With this idea in mind, our latest Progress Pulse survey at the Human Flourishing Lab examined the relationship between people's attitudes about past progress and their expectations for future progress. We surveyed over 2,000 American adults, asking them whether they believe life in America is better today than 50 years ago, and whether they anticipate life will be better 50 years from now.
What we found was illuminating. Our data revealed a powerful connection between how people view past progress and how they envision the future. Among Americans who believe life has improved over the past 50 years, 73% expect further improvement in the coming half-century. In stark contrast, among those who don't see improvement in recent decades, only 33% anticipate a better future.
This pattern held consistently across demographic categories—gender, age, education, income, and political affiliation. It's important to note that this relationship is correlational so we cannot claim that perceptions of past progress cause expectations of future progress. Nevertheless, as a psychologist who studies human motivation, I believe there are compelling reasons to hypothesize that appreciation of past progress meaningfully contributes to hope for the future. When we encounter examples of past human achievements, we're better able to recognize humans as naturally problem-solvers, capable of the exploratory, creative, and innovative activities that tangibly improve our world. The fact that we are so rarely fully satisfied and frustrated in the present speaks to this problem-solving nature. We always think things could be better, and though contentment is a good feeling to cultivate, our feelings of dissatisfaction and disappointment can be productive if we direct them toward constructive goals and actions.
In addition, the more people are aware of past progress, the more they may feel grateful for what previous generations have done to make life better in the present. And research finds that gratitude increases optimism and the motivation to make positive contributions to society.
In short, cultivating historical awareness and appreciation for past progress might serve as a promising pathway for fostering a positive mindset about the future. When individuals acknowledge the remarkable trajectory of human advancement in science, medicine, technology, human rights, and countless other domains, they should be more inclined to expect continued progress and inspired to want to help make that hope a reality. If people in the past were able to overcome significant obstacles and improve the human condition, so too can we address the challenges of our time.
This perspective doesn't require ignoring present challenges or glossing over history's darker chapters. Rather, it suggests that a balanced historical perspective, one that recognizes both struggles and triumphs, might help nurture the psychological resources needed to tackle today's problems with confidence and creativity. While our data establishes correlation rather than causation, the psychological principles at work suggest a potentially valuable intervention. By helping people recognize genuine historical progress, we might enhance their capacity for hope and constructive engagement with contemporary challenges.
You can explore the complete findings of our survey here.
Have a great weekend!
Clay